# Chapter 11 milestone forecast ## 1. Role and task You are a restructuring analyst. Using only the docket as it stood before the decision date, give calibrated probabilities for the case milestones below, take a trading decision, and cite the docket entries that support your view. ## 2. Case - court: N.D. California - court_id: canb - docket_number: [not published] - debtor_name: 4th Street Medical Building, LLC - petition_date: 2022-03-28 - decision_date: 2022-07-29 - case_age_days: 123 - subchapter_v: False - small_business: False - prepack: False - liabilities_bucket: small All evidence is frozen strictly before the decision date 2022-07-29. The decision date is the day after entry #69 (2022-07-28) set the plan objection deadline for 2022-08-26. The case's latest process stage then: statutory plan deadline (2022-07-26); disclosure statement approved (2022-07-26); confirmation hearing set (2022-07-26). Process stages visible before the decision date (first entry of each, from the docket rules; read the entries themselves): - 2022-03-28: Voluntary petition - 2022-03-28: Claims bar date set (entry #3) - 2022-03-28: List of creditors (entry #2) - 2022-03-28: Filing fee (entry #1) - 2022-04-07: Motion to use cash collateral (entry #16) - 2022-04-11: Cash collateral hearing and order (entry #25) - 2022-04-15: Schedules of liabilities (entry #30) - 2022-04-15: Statement of financial affairs and schedules (entry #30) - 2022-04-18: Application to employ professionals (entry #32) - 2022-04-21: Monthly operating reports (entry #35) - 2022-04-27: Order approving employment (entry #41) - 2022-05-05: Proofs of claim (entry #44) - 2022-05-06: §341 meeting of creditors (entry #u435903522) - 2022-06-27: Plan filed (entry #59) - 2022-07-22: Ballots certified (entry #u435903526) - 2022-07-26: Confirmation hearing (entry #67) - 2022-07-26: Disclosure statement approved (entry #67) - 2022-07-28: Minimum 25 days' notice; creditors may object within 25 days of plan acceptance (entry #69) ## 3. Evidence Use only `/app/evidence`; the container has no network. ## 4. The `docket` tool - `docket info`: case header and evidence summary - `docket ls [--from N] [--to N] [--limit 200]`: one line per entry (`#ref date text…`) - `docket search PATTERN [--regex] [--limit 50]`: case-insensitive search - `docket open REF...`: full sanitized text of entries ## 5. Outcome definitions An event's date is the date it was entered on the docket. Windows run [decision date, decision date + horizon). - **confirmed**: an order confirming a Chapter 11 plan. - **converted**: an order converting the case to Chapter 7. - **dismissed**: an order dismissing the case, including structured dismissal. - **pending**: none of the above in the window. The first of confirmed, converted or dismissed decides the path. - **consummation** (plan effective): a notice reports the plan's effective date or substantial consummation. Scheduled events: each `sched_*` question asks what happens to the FIRST date set for an event already scheduled on the docket, read from the docket entries after it up to the event date plus the grace period (the window's end). The first outcome entry decides; a later entry setting a new date counts as continued / adjourned. - **no_objection** (plan objection deadline): no objection, opposition or response is filed as its own docket entry by the deadline (plus the grace period); a reservation of rights that does not also object is not one, nor is a response that appears only inside another filing. - **objections_live** (plan objection deadline): objections are filed and at least one is still live at the hearing. - **objections_resolved** (plan objection deadline): objections are filed, but each is withdrawn or settled before the hearing. - **case_ended** (confirmation hearing): the case is converted or dismissed first (for a motion to convert or dismiss, that order is `granted`). - **continued** (confirmation hearing): the hearing is continued, adjourned or rescheduled before a ruling (a later date set for the same subject counts, unless a ruling is recorded the same day, such as an interim or agreed order that sets a later hearing for the rest; the ruling then decides). - **denied** (confirmation hearing): denied (also when the court grants another motion heard with it and denies all other relief). - **granted** (confirmation hearing): the motion is granted or the plan / disclosure statement approved (an interim order counts; conditional approval counts): the case advances to the next stage. An agreed or consent order is withdrawn_or_agreed, even when it grants the motion. - **granted_as_modified** (confirmation hearing): the plan is confirmed as modified: the confirmation order says so, or a notice or motion that changes the plan is filed after the hearing is set and before the order. An amended plan filed before the hearing and confirmed as filed counts as granted. - **withdrawn_or_agreed** (confirmation hearing): the motion or plan is withdrawn, or a stipulation, agreed or consent order settles it (also an agreed order that grants the motion). ## 6. Questions | id | type | answer | window | |---|---|---|---| | `path_h90` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2022-07-29, 2022-10-27) | | `path_h180` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2022-07-29, 2023-01-25) | | `path_h365` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2022-07-29, 2023-07-29) | | `reach_consummation_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2022-07-29, 2022-10-27) | | `reach_consummation_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2022-07-29, 2023-01-25) | | `reach_consummation_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2022-07-29, 2023-07-29) | | `sched_plan_objection_deadline_1` | path | probabilities for no_objection, objections_resolved, objections_live (sum to 1): the outcome of the plan objection deadline first set for 2022-08-26 by entry #69 | [2022-07-29, 2022-09-08) | | `sched_confirmation_hearing_1` | path | probabilities for granted, granted_as_modified, denied, continued, withdrawn_or_agreed, case_ended (sum to 1): the outcome of the confirmation hearing first set for 2022-09-07 11:00 am by entry #69 | [2022-07-29, 2022-10-08) | ## 7. Decision A claim on the estate trades at 10¢. Its recovery depends on the path at `path_h365`: confirmed 30¢, converted 2¢, dismissed 10¢, pending 15¢. Answer `bid` if your expected recovery exceeds the price, otherwise `pass`. ## 8. Output Write exactly this JSON shape to `/logs/artifacts/forecast.json` (create the directory if needed): ```json { "item_id": "t0dd34f8402a8", "forecasts": { "path_h90": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h180": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h365": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "reach_consummation_h90": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h180": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h365": 0.2, "sched_plan_objection_deadline_1": { "no_objection": 0.3333, "objections_resolved": 0.3333, "objections_live": 0.3333 }, "sched_confirmation_hearing_1": { "granted": 0.1667, "granted_as_modified": 0.1667, "denied": 0.1667, "continued": 0.1667, "withdrawn_or_agreed": 0.1667, "case_ended": 0.1667 } }, "decision": { "action": "pass" }, "rationale": "Short reasoning grounded in the visible docket.", "citations": [ { "entry": "1", "quote": "verbatim text" } ] } ``` Every question id must appear. Path answers need every class listed for the question (all four for `path_h*`); binary answers are one number in [0, 1]. [The run’s budget is not published.] ## 9. Citations [The settings of this rule are not published.] ## 10. Scoring [The settings of this rule are not published.]