# Chapter 11 milestone forecast ## 1. Role and task You are a restructuring analyst. Using only the docket as it stood before the decision date, give calibrated probabilities for the case milestones below, take a trading decision, and cite the docket entries that support your view. ## 2. Case - court: S.D. Texas - court_id: txsb - docket_number: [not published] - debtor_name: the Debtor - petition_date: 2024-04-09 - decision_date: 2025-06-14 - case_age_days: 431 - subchapter_v: False - small_business: False - prepack: False - liabilities_bucket: mid All evidence is frozen strictly before the decision date 2025-06-14. The decision date is the day after this process stage was first visible on the docket: plan filed (2025-06-13). Process stages visible before the decision date (first entry of each, from the docket rules; read the entries themselves): - 2024-04-09: Voluntary petition - 2024-04-09: Filing fee (entry #1) - 2024-04-10: Claims bar date set (entry #2) - 2024-04-10: Deadline to object to discharge (entry #2) - 2024-04-10: Governmental bar date (entry #2) - 2024-04-11: List of creditors (entry #4) - 2024-04-11: Application to employ professionals (entry #3) - 2024-04-23: Schedule of executory contracts and leases (entry #13) - 2024-04-23: Schedules of liabilities (entry #13) - 2024-04-23: Statement of financial affairs and schedules (entry #13) - 2024-04-30: Committee formation by the U.S. Trustee (entry #23) - 2024-04-30: Committee appointed (entry #23) - 2024-05-02: Motion to use cash collateral (entry #27) - 2024-05-08: Periodic administrative or status report (entry #37) - 2024-05-08: U.S. Trustee changes committee membership (entry #36) - 2024-05-09: Cash collateral hearing and order (entry #41) - 2024-05-15: §341 meeting of creditors (entry #u390196851) - 2024-05-21: Monthly operating reports (entry #60) - 2024-05-25: Committee organizes and retains professionals (entry #71) - 2024-06-21: Order approving employment (entry #122) - 2024-06-24: Preliminary injunction (entry #125) - 2024-07-26: Motion for relief from stay (entry #205) - 2024-09-25: Proofs of claim (entry #309) - 2024-12-04: Interim fee applications (entry #434) - 2025-02-05: Objection to claims (entry #518) - 2025-02-06: Order on fee application (entry #527) - 2025-06-13: Disclosure statement filed (entry #692) - 2025-06-13: Plan filed (entry #693) ## 3. Evidence Use only `/app/evidence`; the container has no network. ## 4. The `docket` tool - `docket info`: case header and evidence summary - `docket ls [--from N] [--to N] [--limit 200]`: one line per entry (`#ref date text…`) - `docket search PATTERN [--regex] [--limit 50]`: case-insensitive search - `docket open REF...`: full sanitized text of entries ## 5. Outcome definitions An event's date is the date it was entered on the docket. Windows run [decision date, decision date + horizon). - **confirmed**: an order confirming a Chapter 11 plan. - **converted**: an order converting the case to Chapter 7. - **dismissed**: an order dismissing the case, including structured dismissal. - **pending**: none of the above in the window. The first of confirmed, converted or dismissed decides the path. - **ds_approval** (disclosure statement approved): an order approves the disclosure statement, including conditional approval for solicitation. - **ballot** (ballots certified): the ballot tabulation, voting report or certification of votes on the plan is filed. - **confirmation_hearing_set** (confirmation hearing set): an order, notice or docket text sets the hearing on confirmation of the plan. - **consummation** (plan effective): a notice reports the plan's effective date or substantial consummation. - **final_decree** (final decree): a final decree closes the case, or the clerk closes a case that was not dismissed or converted. ## 6. Questions | id | type | answer | window | |---|---|---|---| | `path_h90` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2025-06-14, 2025-09-12) | | `path_h180` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2025-06-14, 2025-12-11) | | `path_h365` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2025-06-14, 2026-06-14) | | `reach_ds_approval_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2025-06-14, 2025-09-12) | | `reach_ds_approval_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2025-06-14, 2025-12-11) | | `reach_ds_approval_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2025-06-14, 2026-06-14) | | `reach_ballot_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2025-06-14, 2025-09-12) | | `reach_ballot_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2025-06-14, 2025-12-11) | | `reach_ballot_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2025-06-14, 2026-06-14) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2025-06-14, 2025-09-12) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2025-06-14, 2025-12-11) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2025-06-14, 2026-06-14) | | `reach_consummation_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2025-06-14, 2025-09-12) | | `reach_consummation_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2025-06-14, 2025-12-11) | | `reach_consummation_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2025-06-14, 2026-06-14) | | `reach_final_decree_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2025-06-14, 2025-09-12) | | `reach_final_decree_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2025-06-14, 2025-12-11) | | `reach_final_decree_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2025-06-14, 2026-06-14) | ## 7. Decision A claim on the estate trades at 25¢. Its recovery depends on the path at `path_h365`: confirmed 30¢, converted 2¢, dismissed 10¢, pending 15¢. Answer `bid` if your expected recovery exceeds the price, otherwise `pass`. ## 8. Output Write exactly this JSON shape to `/logs/artifacts/forecast.json` (create the directory if needed): ```json { "item_id": "t12297a488855", "forecasts": { "path_h90": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h180": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h365": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "reach_ds_approval_h90": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h180": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h365": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h90": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h180": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h365": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h90": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h180": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h365": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h90": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h180": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h365": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h90": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h180": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h365": 0.2 }, "decision": { "action": "pass" }, "rationale": "Short reasoning grounded in the visible docket.", "citations": [ { "entry": "1", "quote": "verbatim text" } ] } ``` Every question id must appear. Path answers need all four classes; binary answers are one number in [0, 1]. [The run’s budget is not published.] ## 9. Citations [The settings of this rule are not published.] ## 10. Scoring [The settings of this rule are not published.]