# Chapter 11 milestone forecast ## 1. Role and task You are a restructuring analyst. Using only the docket as it stood before the decision date, give calibrated probabilities for the case milestones below, take a trading decision, and cite the docket entries that support your view. ## 2. Case - court: D. Arizona - court_id: arb - docket_number: [not published] - debtor_name: MIKE JOHNSON AZ PROPERTY INVESTMENTS, LLC - petition_date: 2023-04-24 - decision_date: 2024-04-24 - case_age_days: 366 - subchapter_v: False - small_business: False - prepack: False - liabilities_bucket: small All evidence is frozen strictly before the decision date 2024-04-24. The decision date is the day after this process stage was first visible on the docket: confirmation hearing set (2024-04-23). Process stages visible before the decision date (first entry of each, from the docket rules; read the entries themselves): - 2023-04-24: Voluntary petition - 2023-04-24: Schedules of liabilities (entry #7) - 2023-04-24: Statement of financial affairs and schedules (entry #7) - 2023-05-02: Claims bar date set (entry #16) - 2023-05-30: §341 meeting of creditors (entry #26) - 2023-07-07: Application to employ professionals (entry #44) - 2023-07-07: Order approving employment (entry #47) - 2023-08-07: Final fee application (entry #68) - 2023-08-30: Order on fee application (entry #91) - 2023-10-04: Monthly operating reports (entry #104) - 2023-10-20: Proofs of claim (entry #108) - 2023-11-21: Motion for relief from stay (entry #123) - 2024-01-23: Disclosure statement filed (entry #148) - 2024-01-23: Plan filed (entry #147) - 2024-04-09: Objections to confirmation (entry #202) - 2024-04-17: Disclosure statement objections and hearing (entry #212) - 2024-04-23: Confirmation hearing (entry #215) ## 3. Evidence Use only `/app/evidence`; the container has no network. ## 4. The `docket` tool - `docket info`: case header and evidence summary - `docket ls [--from N] [--to N] [--limit 200]`: one line per entry (`#ref date text…`) - `docket search PATTERN [--regex] [--limit 50]`: case-insensitive search - `docket open REF...`: full sanitized text of entries ## 5. Outcome definitions An event's date is the date it was entered on the docket. Windows run [decision date, decision date + horizon). - **confirmed**: an order confirming a Chapter 11 plan. - **converted**: an order converting the case to Chapter 7. - **dismissed**: an order dismissing the case, including structured dismissal. - **pending**: none of the above in the window. The first of confirmed, converted or dismissed decides the path. - **ds_approval** (disclosure statement approved): an order approves the disclosure statement, including conditional approval for solicitation. - **ballot** (ballots certified): the ballot tabulation, voting report or certification of votes on the plan is filed. - **consummation** (plan effective): a notice reports the plan's effective date or substantial consummation. - **final_decree** (final decree): a final decree closes the case, or the clerk closes a case that was not dismissed or converted. ## 6. Questions | id | type | answer | window | |---|---|---|---| | `path_h90` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-04-24, 2024-07-23) | | `path_h180` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-04-24, 2024-10-21) | | `path_h365` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-04-24, 2025-04-24) | | `reach_ds_approval_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2024-04-24, 2024-07-23) | | `reach_ds_approval_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2024-04-24, 2024-10-21) | | `reach_ds_approval_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2024-04-24, 2025-04-24) | | `reach_ballot_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2024-04-24, 2024-07-23) | | `reach_ballot_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2024-04-24, 2024-10-21) | | `reach_ballot_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2024-04-24, 2025-04-24) | | `reach_consummation_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2024-04-24, 2024-07-23) | | `reach_consummation_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2024-04-24, 2024-10-21) | | `reach_consummation_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2024-04-24, 2025-04-24) | | `reach_final_decree_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2024-04-24, 2024-07-23) | | `reach_final_decree_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2024-04-24, 2024-10-21) | | `reach_final_decree_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2024-04-24, 2025-04-24) | ## 7. Decision A claim on the estate trades at 5¢. Its recovery depends on the path at `path_h365`: confirmed 30¢, converted 2¢, dismissed 10¢, pending 15¢. Answer `bid` if your expected recovery exceeds the price, otherwise `pass`. ## 8. Output Write exactly this JSON shape to `/logs/artifacts/forecast.json` (create the directory if needed): ```json { "item_id": "t171564d03b9a", "forecasts": { "path_h90": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h180": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h365": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "reach_ds_approval_h90": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h180": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h365": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h90": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h180": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h365": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h90": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h180": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h365": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h90": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h180": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h365": 0.2 }, "decision": { "action": "pass" }, "rationale": "Short reasoning grounded in the visible docket.", "citations": [ { "entry": "1", "quote": "verbatim text" } ] } ``` Every question id must appear. Path answers need all four classes; binary answers are one number in [0, 1]. [The run’s budget is not published.] ## 9. Citations [The settings of this rule are not published.] ## 10. Scoring [The settings of this rule are not published.]