# Chapter 11 milestone forecast ## 1. Role and task You are a restructuring analyst. Using only the docket as it stood before the decision date, give calibrated probabilities for the case milestones below, take a trading decision, and cite the docket entries that support your view. ## 2. Case - court: S.D. Texas - court_id: txsb - docket_number: [not published] - debtor_name: the Debtor - petition_date: 2024-04-09 - decision_date: 2024-08-08 - case_age_days: 121 - subchapter_v: False - small_business: False - prepack: False - liabilities_bucket: mid All evidence is frozen strictly before the decision date 2024-08-08. The decision date is the day after this process stage was first visible on the docket: statutory plan deadline (2024-08-07). Process stages visible before the decision date (first entry of each, from the docket rules; read the entries themselves): - 2024-04-09: Voluntary petition - 2024-04-09: Filing fee (entry #1) - 2024-04-10: Claims bar date set (entry #2) - 2024-04-10: Deadline to object to discharge (entry #2) - 2024-04-10: Governmental bar date (entry #2) - 2024-04-11: List of creditors (entry #4) - 2024-04-11: Application to employ professionals (entry #3) - 2024-04-23: Schedule of executory contracts and leases (entry #13) - 2024-04-23: Schedules of liabilities (entry #13) - 2024-04-23: Statement of financial affairs and schedules (entry #13) - 2024-04-30: Committee formation by the U.S. Trustee (entry #23) - 2024-04-30: Committee appointed (entry #23) - 2024-05-02: Motion to use cash collateral (entry #27) - 2024-05-08: Periodic administrative or status report (entry #37) - 2024-05-08: U.S. Trustee changes committee membership (entry #36) - 2024-05-09: Cash collateral hearing and order (entry #41) - 2024-05-15: §341 meeting of creditors (entry #u390196851) - 2024-05-21: Monthly operating reports (entry #60) - 2024-05-25: Committee organizes and retains professionals (entry #71) - 2024-06-21: Order approving employment (entry #122) - 2024-06-24: Preliminary injunction (entry #125) - 2024-07-26: Motion for relief from stay (entry #205) ## 3. Evidence Use only `/app/evidence`; the container has no network. ## 4. The `docket` tool - `docket info`: case header and evidence summary - `docket ls [--from N] [--to N] [--limit 200]`: one line per entry (`#ref date text…`) - `docket search PATTERN [--regex] [--limit 50]`: case-insensitive search - `docket open REF...`: full sanitized text of entries ## 5. Outcome definitions An event's date is the date it was entered on the docket. Windows run [decision date, decision date + horizon). - **confirmed**: an order confirming a Chapter 11 plan. - **converted**: an order converting the case to Chapter 7. - **dismissed**: an order dismissing the case, including structured dismissal. - **pending**: none of the above in the window. The first of confirmed, converted or dismissed decides the path. - **plan** (plan filed): a Chapter 11 plan is filed (a combined plan and disclosure statement or a Subchapter V plan counts). - **ds_approval** (disclosure statement approved): an order approves the disclosure statement, including conditional approval for solicitation. - **ballot** (ballots certified): the ballot tabulation, voting report or certification of votes on the plan is filed. - **confirmation_hearing_set** (confirmation hearing set): an order, notice or docket text sets the hearing on confirmation of the plan. - **consummation** (plan effective): a notice reports the plan's effective date or substantial consummation. - **final_decree** (final decree): a final decree closes the case, or the clerk closes a case that was not dismissed or converted. Scheduled events: each `sched_*` question asks what happens to the FIRST date set for an event already scheduled on the docket, read from the docket entries after it up to the event date plus the grace period (the window's end). The first outcome entry decides; a later entry setting a new date counts as continued / adjourned. - **advanced** (hearing on a motion): the step happens: the motion granted (also in part or by agreement), the claim objection sustained. - **case_ended** (hearing on a motion): the case is converted or dismissed first. - **delayed** (hearing on a motion): the hearing is continued or rescheduled before a ruling. - **not_advanced** (hearing on a motion): the motion denied or withdrawn, the claim objection overruled. ## 6. Questions | id | type | answer | window | |---|---|---|---| | `path_h90` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-08-08, 2024-11-06) | | `path_h180` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-08-08, 2025-02-04) | | `path_h365` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-08-08, 2025-08-08) | | `reach_plan_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan filed' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2024-11-06) | | `reach_plan_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan filed' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2025-02-04) | | `reach_plan_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan filed' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2025-08-08) | | `reach_ds_approval_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2024-11-06) | | `reach_ds_approval_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2025-02-04) | | `reach_ds_approval_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2025-08-08) | | `reach_ballot_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2024-11-06) | | `reach_ballot_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2025-02-04) | | `reach_ballot_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2025-08-08) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2024-11-06) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2025-02-04) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2025-08-08) | | `reach_consummation_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2024-11-06) | | `reach_consummation_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2025-02-04) | | `reach_consummation_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2025-08-08) | | `reach_final_decree_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2024-11-06) | | `reach_final_decree_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2025-02-04) | | `reach_final_decree_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2024-08-08, 2025-08-08) | | `sched_motion_hearing_stay_relief_tort_1` | path | probabilities for advanced, delayed, not_advanced, case_ended (sum to 1): the outcome of the hearing on a motion (stay relief for a tort plaintiff or to reach insurance) first set for 2024-08-26 01:30 pm by entry #205 on entry #205 | [2024-08-08, 2024-09-26) | ## 7. Decision A claim on the estate trades at 25¢. Its recovery depends on the path at `path_h365`: confirmed 30¢, converted 2¢, dismissed 10¢, pending 15¢. Answer `bid` if your expected recovery exceeds the price, otherwise `pass`. ## 8. Output Write exactly this JSON shape to `/logs/artifacts/forecast.json` (create the directory if needed): ```json { "item_id": "t1a96c405dd2a", "forecasts": { "path_h90": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h180": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h365": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "reach_plan_h90": 0.2, "reach_plan_h180": 0.2, "reach_plan_h365": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h90": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h180": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h365": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h90": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h180": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h365": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h90": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h180": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h365": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h90": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h180": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h365": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h90": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h180": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h365": 0.2, "sched_motion_hearing_stay_relief_tort_1": { "advanced": 0.25, "delayed": 0.25, "not_advanced": 0.25, "case_ended": 0.25 } }, "decision": { "action": "pass" }, "rationale": "Short reasoning grounded in the visible docket.", "citations": [ { "entry": "1", "quote": "verbatim text" } ] } ``` Every question id must appear. Path answers need every class listed for the question (all four for `path_h*`); binary answers are one number in [0, 1]. [The run’s budget is not published.] ## 9. Citations [The settings of this rule are not published.] ## 10. Scoring [The settings of this rule are not published.]