# Chapter 11 milestone forecast ## 1. Role and task You are a restructuring analyst. Using only the docket as it stood before the decision date, give calibrated probabilities for the case milestones below, take a trading decision, and cite the docket entries that support your view. ## 2. Case - court: N.D. Texas - court_id: txnb - docket_number: [not published] - debtor_name: CapRock Land Company, LLC - petition_date: 2023-08-25 - decision_date: 2023-11-07 - case_age_days: 74 - subchapter_v: False - small_business: False - prepack: False - liabilities_bucket: mid All evidence is frozen strictly before the decision date 2023-11-07. The decision date is the day after entry #114 (2023-11-06) set the hearing on a motion (§363 sale motion) for 2023-11-09. The case's latest process stage then: §341 meeting held (2023-10-26). Process stages visible before the decision date (first entry of each, from the docket rules; read the entries themselves): - 2023-08-25: Voluntary petition - 2023-08-25: List of creditors (entry #2) - 2023-08-25: Filing fee (entry #1) - 2023-08-28: Motion to use cash collateral (entry #7) - 2023-09-08: Schedules of liabilities (entry #30) - 2023-09-08: Statement of financial affairs and schedules (entry #30) - 2023-09-12: Claims bar date set (entry #37) - 2023-09-12: Application to employ professionals (entry #38) - 2023-09-12: Governmental bar date (entry #37) - 2023-09-29: Cash collateral hearing and order (entry #65) - 2023-10-03: Monthly operating reports (entry #66) - 2023-10-16: Motion to assume or reject (entry #90) - 2023-10-16: Order approving employment (entry #92) - 2023-10-26: §341 meeting of creditors (entry #u369058168) - 2023-11-02: Motion to sell assets (entry #110) ## 3. Evidence Use only `/app/evidence`; the container has no network. ## 4. The `docket` tool - `docket info`: case header and evidence summary - `docket ls [--from N] [--to N] [--limit 200]`: one line per entry (`#ref date text…`) - `docket search PATTERN [--regex] [--limit 50]`: case-insensitive search - `docket open REF...`: full sanitized text of entries ## 5. Outcome definitions An event's date is the date it was entered on the docket. Windows run [decision date, decision date + horizon). - **confirmed**: an order confirming a Chapter 11 plan. - **converted**: an order converting the case to Chapter 7. - **dismissed**: an order dismissing the case, including structured dismissal. - **pending**: none of the above in the window. The first of confirmed, converted or dismissed decides the path. - **committee_order** (creditors' committee appointed): the U.S. Trustee's notice of appointment of an official committee of unsecured creditors, or an order appointing one. - **cash_collateral_final** (final cash collateral order): an order authorizing the use of cash collateral that is not an interim order. - **plan** (plan filed): a Chapter 11 plan is filed (a combined plan and disclosure statement or a Subchapter V plan counts). - **ds_approval** (disclosure statement approved): an order approves the disclosure statement, including conditional approval for solicitation. - **ballot** (ballots certified): the ballot tabulation, voting report or certification of votes on the plan is filed. - **confirmation_hearing_set** (confirmation hearing set): an order, notice or docket text sets the hearing on confirmation of the plan. - **consummation** (plan effective): a notice reports the plan's effective date or substantial consummation. - **final_decree** (final decree): a final decree closes the case, or the clerk closes a case that was not dismissed or converted. Scheduled events: each `sched_*` question asks what happens to the FIRST date set for an event already scheduled on the docket, read from the docket entries after it up to the event date plus the grace period (the window's end). The first outcome entry decides; a later entry setting a new date counts as continued / adjourned. - **case_ended** (hearing on a motion): the case is converted or dismissed first (for a motion to convert or dismiss, that order is `granted`). - **continued** (hearing on a motion): the hearing is continued, adjourned or rescheduled before a ruling (a later date set for the same subject counts, unless a ruling is recorded the same day, such as an interim or agreed order that sets a later hearing for the rest; the ruling then decides). - **denied** (hearing on a motion): denied (also when the court grants another motion heard with it and denies all other relief). - **granted** (hearing on a motion): the motion is granted or the plan / disclosure statement approved (an interim order counts; conditional approval counts): the case advances to the next stage. An agreed or consent order is withdrawn_or_agreed, even when it grants the motion. - **granted_as_modified** (hearing on a motion): granted in part, or as modified (a plan confirmed as modified; relief granted in a more limited form than the motion asked for counts). - **withdrawn_or_agreed** (hearing on a motion): the motion or plan is withdrawn, or a stipulation, agreed or consent order settles it (also an agreed order that grants the motion). - **advanced** (hearing on a motion): the step happens: the motion granted (also in part or by agreement), the claim objection sustained. - **delayed** (hearing on a motion): the hearing is continued or rescheduled before a ruling. - **not_advanced** (hearing on a motion): the motion denied or withdrawn, the claim objection overruled. - **case_ended** (statutory plan deadline): the case is converted or dismissed first. - **continued** (statutory plan deadline): an order extends the deadline (exclusivity extended, including a bridge order). - **denied** (statutory plan deadline): the deadline passes without a plan or an extension, or the extension is denied. - **granted** (statutory plan deadline): a plan is filed by the deadline: the case advances to the plan stage. - **granted_as_modified** (statutory plan deadline): not used for the plan deadline. - **withdrawn_or_agreed** (statutory plan deadline): not used for the plan deadline (an agreed extension counts as continued). ## 6. Questions | id | type | answer | window | |---|---|---|---| | `path_h90` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2023-11-07, 2024-02-05) | | `path_h180` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2023-11-07, 2024-05-05) | | `path_h365` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2023-11-07, 2024-11-06) | | `reach_committee_order_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'creditors' committee appointed' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-02-05) | | `reach_committee_order_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'creditors' committee appointed' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-05-05) | | `reach_committee_order_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'creditors' committee appointed' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-11-06) | | `reach_cash_collateral_final_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final cash collateral order' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-02-05) | | `reach_cash_collateral_final_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final cash collateral order' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-05-05) | | `reach_cash_collateral_final_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final cash collateral order' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-11-06) | | `reach_plan_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan filed' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-02-05) | | `reach_plan_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan filed' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-05-05) | | `reach_plan_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan filed' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-11-06) | | `reach_ds_approval_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-02-05) | | `reach_ds_approval_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-05-05) | | `reach_ds_approval_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-11-06) | | `reach_ballot_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-02-05) | | `reach_ballot_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-05-05) | | `reach_ballot_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-11-06) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-02-05) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-05-05) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-11-06) | | `reach_consummation_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-02-05) | | `reach_consummation_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-05-05) | | `reach_consummation_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-11-06) | | `reach_final_decree_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-02-05) | | `reach_final_decree_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-05-05) | | `reach_final_decree_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2023-11-07, 2024-11-06) | | `sched_motion_hearing_sale_1` | path | probabilities for granted, granted_as_modified, denied, continued, withdrawn_or_agreed, case_ended (sum to 1): the outcome of the hearing on a motion (§363 sale motion) first set for 2023-11-09 01:30 pm by entry #114 on entry #110 | [2023-11-07, 2023-12-10) | | `sched_motion_hearing_contracts_leases_2` | path | probabilities for advanced, delayed, not_advanced, case_ended (sum to 1): the outcome of the hearing on a motion (motion to assume or reject executory contracts or leases) first set for 2023-11-09 01:30 pm by entry #102 on entry #96 | [2023-11-07, 2023-12-10) | | `sched_exclusivity_expiry_1` | path | probabilities for granted, granted_as_modified, denied, continued, withdrawn_or_agreed, case_ended (sum to 1): the outcome of the statutory plan deadline first set for 2023-12-23 | [2023-11-07, 2024-01-23) | ## 7. Decision A claim on the estate trades at 20¢. Its recovery depends on the path at `path_h365`: confirmed 30¢, converted 2¢, dismissed 10¢, pending 15¢. Answer `bid` if your expected recovery exceeds the price, otherwise `pass`. ## 8. Output Write exactly this JSON shape to `/logs/artifacts/forecast.json` (create the directory if needed): ```json { "item_id": "t347673a20bc4", "forecasts": { "path_h90": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h180": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h365": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "reach_committee_order_h90": 0.2, "reach_committee_order_h180": 0.2, "reach_committee_order_h365": 0.2, "reach_cash_collateral_final_h90": 0.2, "reach_cash_collateral_final_h180": 0.2, "reach_cash_collateral_final_h365": 0.2, "reach_plan_h90": 0.2, "reach_plan_h180": 0.2, "reach_plan_h365": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h90": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h180": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h365": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h90": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h180": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h365": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h90": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h180": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h365": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h90": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h180": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h365": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h90": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h180": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h365": 0.2, "sched_motion_hearing_sale_1": { "granted": 0.1667, "granted_as_modified": 0.1667, "denied": 0.1667, "continued": 0.1667, "withdrawn_or_agreed": 0.1667, "case_ended": 0.1667 }, "sched_motion_hearing_contracts_leases_2": { "advanced": 0.25, "delayed": 0.25, "not_advanced": 0.25, "case_ended": 0.25 }, "sched_exclusivity_expiry_1": { "granted": 0.1667, "granted_as_modified": 0.1667, "denied": 0.1667, "continued": 0.1667, "withdrawn_or_agreed": 0.1667, "case_ended": 0.1667 } }, "decision": { "action": "pass" }, "rationale": "Short reasoning grounded in the visible docket.", "citations": [ { "entry": "1", "quote": "verbatim text" } ] } ``` Every question id must appear. Path answers need every class listed for the question (all four for `path_h*`); binary answers are one number in [0, 1]. [The run’s budget is not published.] ## 9. Citations [The settings of this rule are not published.] ## 10. Scoring [The settings of this rule are not published.]