# Chapter 11 milestone forecast

## 1. Role and task
You are a restructuring analyst. Using only the docket as it stood before the decision date, give calibrated probabilities for the case milestones below, take a trading decision, and cite the docket entries that support your view.

## 2. Case
- court: D. Delaware
- court_id: deb
- docket_number: [not published]
- debtor_name: the Debtor
- petition_date: 2022-08-23
- decision_date: 2022-10-01
- case_age_days: 39
- subchapter_v: False
- small_business: False
- prepack: False
- liabilities_bucket: mid

All evidence is frozen strictly before the decision date 2022-10-01.

The decision date is the day after entry #167 (2022-09-30) set the objection deadline (motion to assume or reject executory contracts or leases) for 2022-10-14. The case's latest process stage then: claims bar date set (2022-09-29).

Process stages visible before the decision date (first entry of each, from the docket rules; read the entries themselves):
- 2022-08-23: Voluntary petition
- 2022-08-23: Filing fee (entry #1)
- 2022-08-27: Motion to sell assets (entry #55)
- 2022-08-30: Motion to assume or reject (entry #66)
- 2022-09-09: Committee formation by the U.S. Trustee (entry #77)
- 2022-09-12: Contract or lease assumed or rejected (entry #87)
- 2022-09-12: Order on fee application (entry #89)
- 2022-09-13: Application to employ professionals (entry #100)
- 2022-09-15: Order approving employment (entry #114)
- 2022-09-20: Schedule of executory contracts and leases (entry #132)
- 2022-09-20: Schedules of liabilities (entry #132)
- 2022-09-20: Statement of financial affairs and schedules (entry #132)
- 2022-09-22: Monthly operating reports (entry #139)
- 2022-09-27: §341 meeting of creditors (entry #143)
- 2022-09-28: Motion for relief from stay (entry #148)
- 2022-09-29: Claims bar date set (entry #154)

## 3. Evidence
Use only `/app/evidence`; the container has no network.

## 4. The `docket` tool
- `docket info`: case header and evidence summary
- `docket ls [--from N] [--to N] [--limit 200]`: one line per entry (`#ref date text…`)
- `docket search PATTERN [--regex] [--limit 50]`: case-insensitive search
- `docket open REF...`: full sanitized text of entries

## 5. Outcome definitions
An event's date is the date it was entered on the docket. Windows run [decision date, decision date + horizon).

- **confirmed**: an order confirming a Chapter 11 plan.
- **converted**: an order converting the case to Chapter 7.
- **dismissed**: an order dismissing the case, including structured dismissal.
- **pending**: none of the above in the window. The first of confirmed, converted or dismissed decides the path.
- **plan** (plan filed): a Chapter 11 plan is filed (a combined plan and disclosure statement or a Subchapter V plan counts).
- **ds_approval** (disclosure statement approved): an order approves the disclosure statement, including conditional approval for solicitation.
- **ballot** (ballots certified): the ballot tabulation, voting report or certification of votes on the plan is filed.
- **confirmation_hearing_set** (confirmation hearing set): an order, notice or docket text sets the hearing on confirmation of the plan.
- **consummation** (plan effective): a notice reports the plan's effective date or substantial consummation.
- **final_decree** (final decree): a final decree closes the case, or the clerk closes a case that was not dismissed or converted.

Scheduled events: each `sched_*` question asks what happens to the FIRST date set for an event already scheduled on the docket, read from the docket entries after it up to the event date plus the grace period (the window's end). The first outcome entry decides; a later entry setting a new date counts as continued / adjourned.
- **no_objection** (objection deadline): no objection, opposition or response is filed as its own docket entry by the deadline (plus the grace period); a reservation of rights that does not also object is not one, nor is a response that appears only inside another filing.
- **objections_live** (objection deadline): objections are filed and at least one is still live at the hearing.
- **objections_resolved** (objection deadline): objections are filed, but each is withdrawn or settled before the hearing.
- **advanced** (hearing on a motion): the step happens: the motion granted (also in part or by agreement), the claim objection sustained.
- **case_ended** (hearing on a motion): the case is converted or dismissed first.
- **delayed** (hearing on a motion): the hearing is continued or rescheduled before a ruling.
- **not_advanced** (hearing on a motion): the motion denied or withdrawn, the claim objection overruled.
- **case_ended** (statutory plan deadline): the case is converted or dismissed first.
- **continued** (statutory plan deadline): an order extends the deadline (exclusivity extended, including a bridge order).
- **denied** (statutory plan deadline): the deadline passes without a plan or an extension, or the extension is denied.
- **granted** (statutory plan deadline): a plan is filed by the deadline: the case advances to the plan stage.
- **granted_as_modified** (statutory plan deadline): not used for the plan deadline.
- **withdrawn_or_agreed** (statutory plan deadline): not used for the plan deadline (an agreed extension counts as continued).

## 6. Questions
| id | type | answer | window |
|---|---|---|---|
| `path_h90` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2022-10-01, 2022-12-30) |
| `path_h180` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2022-10-01, 2023-03-30) |
| `path_h365` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2022-10-01, 2023-10-01) |
| `reach_plan_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan filed' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2022-12-30) |
| `reach_plan_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan filed' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2023-03-30) |
| `reach_plan_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan filed' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2023-10-01) |
| `reach_ds_approval_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2022-12-30) |
| `reach_ds_approval_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2023-03-30) |
| `reach_ds_approval_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2023-10-01) |
| `reach_ballot_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2022-12-30) |
| `reach_ballot_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2023-03-30) |
| `reach_ballot_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2023-10-01) |
| `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2022-12-30) |
| `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2023-03-30) |
| `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2023-10-01) |
| `reach_consummation_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2022-12-30) |
| `reach_consummation_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2023-03-30) |
| `reach_consummation_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2023-10-01) |
| `reach_final_decree_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2022-12-30) |
| `reach_final_decree_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2023-03-30) |
| `reach_final_decree_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2022-10-01, 2023-10-01) |
| `sched_objection_deadline_contracts_leases_1` | path | probabilities for no_objection, objections_resolved, objections_live (sum to 1): the outcome of the objection deadline (motion to assume or reject executory contracts or leases) first set for 2022-10-14 by entry #167 on entry #167 | [2022-10-01, 2022-11-14) |
| `sched_motion_hearing_stay_relief_tort_1` | path | probabilities for advanced, delayed, not_advanced, case_ended (sum to 1): the outcome of the hearing on a motion (stay relief for a tort plaintiff or to reach insurance) first set for 2022-11-10 11:30 am by entry #148 on entry #148 | [2022-10-01, 2022-12-11) |
| `sched_exclusivity_expiry_1` | path | probabilities for granted, granted_as_modified, denied, continued, withdrawn_or_agreed, case_ended (sum to 1): the outcome of the statutory plan deadline first set for 2022-12-21 | [2022-10-01, 2023-01-21) |

## 7. Decision
A claim on the estate trades at 20¢. Its recovery depends on the path at `path_h365`: confirmed 30¢, converted 2¢, dismissed 10¢, pending 15¢. Answer `bid` if your expected recovery exceeds the price, otherwise `pass`.

## 8. Output
Write exactly this JSON shape to `/logs/artifacts/forecast.json` (create the directory if needed):
```json
{
  "item_id": "t374c6213be56",
  "forecasts": {
    "path_h90": {
      "confirmed": 0.1,
      "converted": 0.1,
      "dismissed": 0.1,
      "pending": 0.7
    },
    "path_h180": {
      "confirmed": 0.1,
      "converted": 0.1,
      "dismissed": 0.1,
      "pending": 0.7
    },
    "path_h365": {
      "confirmed": 0.1,
      "converted": 0.1,
      "dismissed": 0.1,
      "pending": 0.7
    },
    "reach_plan_h90": 0.2,
    "reach_plan_h180": 0.2,
    "reach_plan_h365": 0.2,
    "reach_ds_approval_h90": 0.2,
    "reach_ds_approval_h180": 0.2,
    "reach_ds_approval_h365": 0.2,
    "reach_ballot_h90": 0.2,
    "reach_ballot_h180": 0.2,
    "reach_ballot_h365": 0.2,
    "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h90": 0.2,
    "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h180": 0.2,
    "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h365": 0.2,
    "reach_consummation_h90": 0.2,
    "reach_consummation_h180": 0.2,
    "reach_consummation_h365": 0.2,
    "reach_final_decree_h90": 0.2,
    "reach_final_decree_h180": 0.2,
    "reach_final_decree_h365": 0.2,
    "sched_objection_deadline_contracts_leases_1": {
      "no_objection": 0.3333,
      "objections_resolved": 0.3333,
      "objections_live": 0.3333
    },
    "sched_motion_hearing_stay_relief_tort_1": {
      "advanced": 0.25,
      "delayed": 0.25,
      "not_advanced": 0.25,
      "case_ended": 0.25
    },
    "sched_exclusivity_expiry_1": {
      "granted": 0.1667,
      "granted_as_modified": 0.1667,
      "denied": 0.1667,
      "continued": 0.1667,
      "withdrawn_or_agreed": 0.1667,
      "case_ended": 0.1667
    }
  },
  "decision": {
    "action": "pass"
  },
  "rationale": "Short reasoning grounded in the visible docket.",
  "citations": [
    {
      "entry": "1",
      "quote": "verbatim text"
    }
  ]
}
```
Every question id must appear. Path answers need every class listed for the question (all four for `path_h*`); binary answers are one number in [0, 1].

[The run’s budget is not published.]

## 9. Citations
[The settings of this rule are not published.]

## 10. Scoring
[The settings of this rule are not published.]