# Chapter 11 milestone forecast

## 1. Role and task
You are a restructuring analyst. Using only the docket as it stood before the decision date, give calibrated probabilities for the case milestones below, take a trading decision, and cite the docket entries that support your view.

## 2. Case
- court: N.D. California
- court_id: canb
- docket_number: [not published]
- debtor_name: 4th Street Medical Building, LLC
- petition_date: 2022-03-28
- decision_date: 2022-07-23
- case_age_days: 117
- subchapter_v: False
- small_business: False
- prepack: False
- liabilities_bucket: small

All evidence is frozen strictly before the decision date 2022-07-23.

The decision date is the day after this process stage was first visible on the docket: ballots certified (2022-07-22).

Process stages visible before the decision date (first entry of each, from the docket rules; read the entries themselves):
- 2022-03-28: Voluntary petition
- 2022-03-28: Claims bar date set (entry #3)
- 2022-03-28: List of creditors (entry #2)
- 2022-03-28: Filing fee (entry #1)
- 2022-04-07: Motion to use cash collateral (entry #16)
- 2022-04-11: Cash collateral hearing and order (entry #25)
- 2022-04-15: Schedules of liabilities (entry #30)
- 2022-04-15: Statement of financial affairs and schedules (entry #30)
- 2022-04-18: Application to employ professionals (entry #32)
- 2022-04-21: Monthly operating reports (entry #35)
- 2022-04-27: Order approving employment (entry #41)
- 2022-05-05: Proofs of claim (entry #44)
- 2022-05-06: §341 meeting of creditors (entry #u435903522)
- 2022-06-27: Plan filed (entry #59)
- 2022-07-22: Ballots certified (entry #u435903526)

## 3. Evidence
Use only `/app/evidence`; the container has no network.

## 4. The `docket` tool
- `docket info`: case header and evidence summary
- `docket ls [--from N] [--to N] [--limit 200]`: one line per entry (`#ref date text…`)
- `docket search PATTERN [--regex] [--limit 50]`: case-insensitive search
- `docket open REF...`: full sanitized text of entries

## 5. Outcome definitions
An event's date is the date it was entered on the docket. Windows run [decision date, decision date + horizon).

- **confirmed**: an order confirming a Chapter 11 plan.
- **converted**: an order converting the case to Chapter 7.
- **dismissed**: an order dismissing the case, including structured dismissal.
- **pending**: none of the above in the window. The first of confirmed, converted or dismissed decides the path.
- **consummation** (plan effective): a notice reports the plan's effective date or substantial consummation.

## 6. Questions
| id | type | answer | window |
|---|---|---|---|
| `path_h90` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2022-07-23, 2022-10-21) |
| `path_h180` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2022-07-23, 2023-01-19) |
| `path_h365` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2022-07-23, 2023-07-23) |
| `reach_consummation_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2022-07-23, 2022-10-21) |
| `reach_consummation_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2022-07-23, 2023-01-19) |
| `reach_consummation_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2022-07-23, 2023-07-23) |

## 7. Decision
A claim on the estate trades at 25¢. Its recovery depends on the path at `path_h365`: confirmed 30¢, converted 2¢, dismissed 10¢, pending 15¢. Answer `bid` if your expected recovery exceeds the price, otherwise `pass`.

## 8. Output
Write exactly this JSON shape to `/logs/artifacts/forecast.json` (create the directory if needed):
```json
{
  "item_id": "t3da162e86c02",
  "forecasts": {
    "path_h90": {
      "confirmed": 0.1,
      "converted": 0.1,
      "dismissed": 0.1,
      "pending": 0.7
    },
    "path_h180": {
      "confirmed": 0.1,
      "converted": 0.1,
      "dismissed": 0.1,
      "pending": 0.7
    },
    "path_h365": {
      "confirmed": 0.1,
      "converted": 0.1,
      "dismissed": 0.1,
      "pending": 0.7
    },
    "reach_consummation_h90": 0.2,
    "reach_consummation_h180": 0.2,
    "reach_consummation_h365": 0.2
  },
  "decision": {
    "action": "pass"
  },
  "rationale": "Short reasoning grounded in the visible docket.",
  "citations": [
    {
      "entry": "1",
      "quote": "verbatim text"
    }
  ]
}
```
Every question id must appear. Path answers need all four classes; binary answers are one number in [0, 1].

[The run’s budget is not published.]

## 9. Citations
[The settings of this rule are not published.]

## 10. Scoring
[The settings of this rule are not published.]