# Chapter 11 milestone forecast

## 1. Role and task
You are a restructuring analyst. Using only the docket as it stood before the decision date, give calibrated probabilities for the case milestones below, take a trading decision, and cite the docket entries that support your view.

## 2. Case
- court: E.D. Pennsylvania
- court_id: paeb
- docket_number: [not published]
- debtor_name: Facilities Management Services of Pennsylvania, In
- petition_date: 2024-09-10
- decision_date: 2024-12-12
- case_age_days: 93
- subchapter_v: True
- small_business: True
- prepack: False
- liabilities_bucket: small

All evidence is frozen strictly before the decision date 2024-12-12.

The decision date is the day after entry #54 (2024-12-11) set the objection deadline (stay relief sought by a secured lender or against operating collateral) for 2024-12-26. The case's latest process stage then: statutory plan deadline (2024-12-09); plan filed (2024-12-09).

Process stages visible before the decision date (first entry of each, from the docket rules; read the entries themselves):
- 2024-09-10: Voluntary petition
- 2024-09-10: List of creditors (entry #2)
- 2024-09-10: Application to employ professionals (entry #6)
- 2024-09-10: Filing fee (entry #1)
- 2024-09-12: Governmental bar date (entry #16)
- 2024-09-27: Order approving employment (entry #25)
- 2024-09-30: Motion to assume or reject (entry #28)
- 2024-10-05: Motion to use cash collateral (entry #31)
- 2024-10-08: Schedule of executory contracts and leases (entry #34)
- 2024-10-08: Schedules of liabilities (entry #34)
- 2024-10-08: Statement of financial affairs and schedules (entry #34)
- 2024-10-23: Claims bar date set (entry #44)
- 2024-11-07: Cash collateral hearing and order (entry #50)
- 2024-12-09: Plan filed (entry #53)
- 2024-12-11: Motion for relief from stay (entry #54)

## 3. Evidence
Use only `/app/evidence`; the container has no network.

## 4. The `docket` tool
- `docket info`: case header and evidence summary
- `docket ls [--from N] [--to N] [--limit 200]`: one line per entry (`#ref date text…`)
- `docket search PATTERN [--regex] [--limit 50]`: case-insensitive search
- `docket open REF...`: full sanitized text of entries

## 5. Outcome definitions
An event's date is the date it was entered on the docket. Windows run [decision date, decision date + horizon).

- **confirmed**: an order confirming a Chapter 11 plan.
- **converted**: an order converting the case to Chapter 7.
- **dismissed**: an order dismissing the case, including structured dismissal.
- **pending**: none of the above in the window. The first of confirmed, converted or dismissed decides the path.
- **confirmation_hearing_set** (confirmation hearing set): an order, notice or docket text sets the hearing on confirmation of the plan.
- **consummation** (plan effective): a notice reports the plan's effective date or substantial consummation.
- **final_decree** (final decree): a final decree closes the case, or the clerk closes a case that was not dismissed or converted.

Scheduled events: each `sched_*` question asks what happens to the FIRST date set for an event already scheduled on the docket, read from the docket entries after it up to the event date plus the grace period (the window's end). The first outcome entry decides; a later entry setting a new date counts as continued / adjourned.
- **no_objection** (objection deadline): no objection, opposition or response is filed as its own docket entry by the deadline (plus the grace period); a reservation of rights that does not also object is not one, nor is a response that appears only inside another filing.
- **objections_live** (objection deadline): objections are filed and at least one is still live at the hearing.
- **objections_resolved** (objection deadline): objections are filed, but each is withdrawn or settled before the hearing.

## 6. Questions
| id | type | answer | window |
|---|---|---|---|
| `path_h90` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-12-12, 2025-03-12) |
| `path_h180` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-12-12, 2025-06-10) |
| `path_h365` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-12-12, 2025-12-12) |
| `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2024-12-12, 2025-03-12) |
| `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2024-12-12, 2025-06-10) |
| `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2024-12-12, 2025-12-12) |
| `reach_consummation_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2024-12-12, 2025-03-12) |
| `reach_consummation_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2024-12-12, 2025-06-10) |
| `reach_consummation_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2024-12-12, 2025-12-12) |
| `reach_final_decree_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2024-12-12, 2025-03-12) |
| `reach_final_decree_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2024-12-12, 2025-06-10) |
| `reach_final_decree_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2024-12-12, 2025-12-12) |
| `sched_objection_deadline_stay_relief_secured_1` | path | probabilities for no_objection, objections_resolved, objections_live (sum to 1): the outcome of the objection deadline (stay relief sought by a secured lender or against operating collateral) first set for 2024-12-26 by entry #54 on entry #54 | [2024-12-12, 2025-01-16) |

## 7. Decision
A claim on the estate trades at 5¢. Its recovery depends on the path at `path_h365`: confirmed 30¢, converted 2¢, dismissed 10¢, pending 15¢. Answer `bid` if your expected recovery exceeds the price, otherwise `pass`.

## 8. Output
Write exactly this JSON shape to `/logs/artifacts/forecast.json` (create the directory if needed):
```json
{
  "item_id": "t40a2a29760cd",
  "forecasts": {
    "path_h90": {
      "confirmed": 0.1,
      "converted": 0.1,
      "dismissed": 0.1,
      "pending": 0.7
    },
    "path_h180": {
      "confirmed": 0.1,
      "converted": 0.1,
      "dismissed": 0.1,
      "pending": 0.7
    },
    "path_h365": {
      "confirmed": 0.1,
      "converted": 0.1,
      "dismissed": 0.1,
      "pending": 0.7
    },
    "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h90": 0.2,
    "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h180": 0.2,
    "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h365": 0.2,
    "reach_consummation_h90": 0.2,
    "reach_consummation_h180": 0.2,
    "reach_consummation_h365": 0.2,
    "reach_final_decree_h90": 0.2,
    "reach_final_decree_h180": 0.2,
    "reach_final_decree_h365": 0.2,
    "sched_objection_deadline_stay_relief_secured_1": {
      "no_objection": 0.3333,
      "objections_resolved": 0.3333,
      "objections_live": 0.3333
    }
  },
  "decision": {
    "action": "pass"
  },
  "rationale": "Short reasoning grounded in the visible docket.",
  "citations": [
    {
      "entry": "1",
      "quote": "verbatim text"
    }
  ]
}
```
Every question id must appear. Path answers need every class listed for the question (all four for `path_h*`); binary answers are one number in [0, 1].

[The run’s budget is not published.]

## 9. Citations
[The settings of this rule are not published.]

## 10. Scoring
[The settings of this rule are not published.]