# Chapter 11 milestone forecast

## 1. Role and task
You are a restructuring analyst. Using only the docket as it stood before the decision date, give calibrated probabilities for the case milestones below, take a trading decision, and cite the docket entries that support your view.

## 2. Case
- court: D. Delaware
- court_id: deb
- docket_number: [not published]
- debtor_name: the Debtor
- petition_date: 2022-08-23
- decision_date: 2022-12-22
- case_age_days: 121
- subchapter_v: False
- small_business: False
- prepack: False
- liabilities_bucket: mid

All evidence is frozen strictly before the decision date 2022-12-22.

The decision date is the day after this process stage was first visible on the docket: statutory plan deadline (2022-12-21).

Process stages visible before the decision date (first entry of each, from the docket rules; read the entries themselves):
- 2022-08-23: Voluntary petition
- 2022-08-23: Filing fee (entry #1)
- 2022-08-27: Motion to sell assets (entry #55)
- 2022-08-30: Motion to assume or reject (entry #66)
- 2022-09-09: Committee formation by the U.S. Trustee (entry #77)
- 2022-09-12: Contract or lease assumed or rejected (entry #87)
- 2022-09-12: Order on fee application (entry #89)
- 2022-09-13: Application to employ professionals (entry #100)
- 2022-09-15: Order approving employment (entry #114)
- 2022-09-20: Schedule of executory contracts and leases (entry #132)
- 2022-09-20: Schedules of liabilities (entry #132)
- 2022-09-20: Statement of financial affairs and schedules (entry #132)
- 2022-09-22: Monthly operating reports (entry #139)
- 2022-09-27: §341 meeting of creditors (entry #143)
- 2022-09-28: Motion for relief from stay (entry #148)
- 2022-09-29: Claims bar date set (entry #154)
- 2022-10-17: Proofs of claim (entry #183)
- 2022-10-24: Disclosure statement filed (entry #198)
- 2022-10-24: Plan filed (entry #198)
- 2022-10-26: Interim fee applications (entry #204)
- 2022-11-10: Confirmation hearing (entry #243)
- 2022-11-10: Disclosure statement approved (entry #243)
- 2022-11-10: Sale approved (entry #242)
- 2022-11-14: Disclosure statement objections and hearing (entry #248)
- 2022-11-19: Objection to claims (entry #255)
- 2022-12-12: Objections to confirmation (entry #308)
- 2022-12-16: Ballots certified (entry #343)

## 3. Evidence
Use only `/app/evidence`; the container has no network.

## 4. The `docket` tool
- `docket info`: case header and evidence summary
- `docket ls [--from N] [--to N] [--limit 200]`: one line per entry (`#ref date text…`)
- `docket search PATTERN [--regex] [--limit 50]`: case-insensitive search
- `docket open REF...`: full sanitized text of entries

## 5. Outcome definitions
An event's date is the date it was entered on the docket. Windows run [decision date, decision date + horizon).

- **confirmed**: an order confirming a Chapter 11 plan.
- **converted**: an order converting the case to Chapter 7.
- **dismissed**: an order dismissing the case, including structured dismissal.
- **pending**: none of the above in the window. The first of confirmed, converted or dismissed decides the path.
- **consummation** (plan effective): a notice reports the plan's effective date or substantial consummation.
- **final_decree** (final decree): a final decree closes the case, or the clerk closes a case that was not dismissed or converted.

## 6. Questions
| id | type | answer | window |
|---|---|---|---|
| `path_h90` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2022-12-22, 2023-03-22) |
| `path_h180` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2022-12-22, 2023-06-20) |
| `path_h365` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2022-12-22, 2023-12-22) |
| `reach_consummation_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2022-12-22, 2023-03-22) |
| `reach_consummation_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2022-12-22, 2023-06-20) |
| `reach_consummation_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2022-12-22, 2023-12-22) |
| `reach_final_decree_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2022-12-22, 2023-03-22) |
| `reach_final_decree_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2022-12-22, 2023-06-20) |
| `reach_final_decree_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2022-12-22, 2023-12-22) |

## 7. Decision
A claim on the estate trades at 15¢. Its recovery depends on the path at `path_h365`: confirmed 30¢, converted 2¢, dismissed 10¢, pending 15¢. Answer `bid` if your expected recovery exceeds the price, otherwise `pass`.

## 8. Output
Write exactly this JSON shape to `/logs/artifacts/forecast.json` (create the directory if needed):
```json
{
  "item_id": "t42afad6a4b0b",
  "forecasts": {
    "path_h90": {
      "confirmed": 0.1,
      "converted": 0.1,
      "dismissed": 0.1,
      "pending": 0.7
    },
    "path_h180": {
      "confirmed": 0.1,
      "converted": 0.1,
      "dismissed": 0.1,
      "pending": 0.7
    },
    "path_h365": {
      "confirmed": 0.1,
      "converted": 0.1,
      "dismissed": 0.1,
      "pending": 0.7
    },
    "reach_consummation_h90": 0.2,
    "reach_consummation_h180": 0.2,
    "reach_consummation_h365": 0.2,
    "reach_final_decree_h90": 0.2,
    "reach_final_decree_h180": 0.2,
    "reach_final_decree_h365": 0.2
  },
  "decision": {
    "action": "pass"
  },
  "rationale": "Short reasoning grounded in the visible docket.",
  "citations": [
    {
      "entry": "1",
      "quote": "verbatim text"
    }
  ]
}
```
Every question id must appear. Path answers need all four classes; binary answers are one number in [0, 1].

[The run’s budget is not published.]

## 9. Citations
[The settings of this rule are not published.]

## 10. Scoring
[The settings of this rule are not published.]