# Chapter 11 milestone forecast

## 1. Role and task
You are a restructuring analyst. Using only the docket as it stood before the decision date, give calibrated probabilities for the case milestones below, take a trading decision, and cite the docket entries that support your view.

## 2. Case
- court: N.D. Texas
- court_id: txnb
- docket_number: [not published]
- debtor_name: CapRock Land Company, LLC
- petition_date: 2023-08-25
- decision_date: 2024-02-15
- case_age_days: 174
- subchapter_v: False
- small_business: False
- prepack: False
- liabilities_bucket: mid

All evidence is frozen strictly before the decision date 2024-02-15.

## 3. Evidence
Use only `/app/evidence`; the container has no network.

## 4. The `docket` tool
- `docket info`: case header and evidence summary
- `docket ls [--from N] [--to N] [--limit 200]`: one line per entry (`#ref date text…`)
- `docket search PATTERN [--regex] [--limit 50]`: case-insensitive search
- `docket open REF...`: full sanitized text of entries

## 5. Outcome definitions
An event's date is the date it was entered on the docket. Windows run [decision date, decision date + horizon).

- **confirmed**: an order confirming a Chapter 11 plan.
- **converted**: an order converting the case to Chapter 7.
- **dismissed**: an order dismissing the case, including structured dismissal.
- **pending**: none of the above in the window. The first of confirmed, converted or dismissed decides the path.
- **sale_approved**: an order authorizing or approving a sale of estate assets. Procedures orders do not count. A sale under a plan counts only when an order approves that sale itself: an order confirming a plan that provides for a sale does not count, nor does a later report of the sale.
- **dip_final**: a final order authorizing post-petition financing.
- **stay_relief**: an order granting relief from the automatic stay. Orders lifting, modifying, terminating or annulling the stay count.
- **trustee_or_examiner**: a Chapter 11 trustee or examiner appointed by order or by U.S. Trustee notice. A Subchapter V or Chapter 7 trustee does not count.
- **committee_appointed**: the U.S. Trustee appoints an official committee of unsecured creditors.
- **ds_approved**: an order approving a disclosure statement, including conditional approval.
- **plan_effective**: a notice that the plan's effective date occurred.

## 6. Questions
| id | type | answer | window |
|---|---|---|---|
| `path_h90` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-02-15, 2024-05-15) |
| `path_h180` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-02-15, 2024-08-13) |
| `path_h365` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-02-15, 2025-02-14) |
| `stay_relief_h180` | event | probability that stay_relief first occurs in the window | [2024-02-15, 2024-08-13) |
| `ds_approved_h180` | event | probability that ds_approved first occurs in the window | [2024-02-15, 2024-08-13) |
| `plan_effective_h180` | event | probability that plan_effective first occurs in the window | [2024-02-15, 2024-08-13) |

## 7. Decision
A claim on the estate trades at 25¢. Its recovery depends on the path at `path_h365`: confirmed 30¢, converted 2¢, dismissed 10¢, pending 15¢. Answer `bid` if your expected recovery exceeds the price, otherwise `pass`.

## 8. Output
Write exactly this JSON shape to `/logs/artifacts/forecast.json` (create the directory if needed):
```json
{
  "item_id": "t536db4eb9194",
  "forecasts": {
    "path_h90": {
      "confirmed": 0.1,
      "converted": 0.1,
      "dismissed": 0.1,
      "pending": 0.7
    },
    "path_h180": {
      "confirmed": 0.1,
      "converted": 0.1,
      "dismissed": 0.1,
      "pending": 0.7
    },
    "path_h365": {
      "confirmed": 0.1,
      "converted": 0.1,
      "dismissed": 0.1,
      "pending": 0.7
    },
    "stay_relief_h180": 0.2,
    "ds_approved_h180": 0.2,
    "plan_effective_h180": 0.2
  },
  "decision": {
    "action": "pass"
  },
  "rationale": "Short reasoning grounded in the visible docket.",
  "citations": [
    {
      "entry": "1",
      "quote": "verbatim text"
    }
  ]
}
```
Every question id must appear. Path answers need all four classes; binary answers are one number in [0, 1].

[The run’s budget is not published.]

## 9. Citations
[The settings of this rule are not published.]

## 10. Scoring
[The settings of this rule are not published.]