# Chapter 11 milestone forecast ## 1. Role and task You are a restructuring analyst. Using only the docket as it stood before the decision date, give calibrated probabilities for the case milestones below, take a trading decision, and cite the docket entries that support your view. ## 2. Case - court: D. Delaware - court_id: deb - docket_number: [not published] - debtor_name: the Debtor - petition_date: 2022-08-23 - decision_date: 2022-08-30 - case_age_days: 7 - subchapter_v: False - small_business: False - prepack: False - liabilities_bucket: mid All evidence is frozen strictly before the decision date 2022-08-30. The decision date is 7 days after the petition (2022-08-23). Process stages visible before the decision date (first entry of each, from the docket rules; read the entries themselves): - 2022-08-23: Voluntary petition - 2022-08-23: Filing fee (entry #1) - 2022-08-27: Motion to sell assets (entry #55) ## 3. Evidence Use only `/app/evidence`; the container has no network. ## 4. The `docket` tool - `docket info`: case header and evidence summary - `docket ls [--from N] [--to N] [--limit 200]`: one line per entry (`#ref date text…`) - `docket search PATTERN [--regex] [--limit 50]`: case-insensitive search - `docket open REF...`: full sanitized text of entries ## 5. Outcome definitions An event's date is the date it was entered on the docket. Windows run [decision date, decision date + horizon). - **confirmed**: an order confirming a Chapter 11 plan. - **converted**: an order converting the case to Chapter 7. - **dismissed**: an order dismissing the case, including structured dismissal. - **pending**: none of the above in the window. The first of confirmed, converted or dismissed decides the path. - **meeting_341** (§341 meeting held): an entry records the §341 meeting of creditors held, concluded, or held and continued. - **committee_order** (creditors' committee appointed): the U.S. Trustee's notice of appointment of an official committee of unsecured creditors, or an order appointing one. - **cash_collateral_final** (final cash collateral order): an order authorizing the use of cash collateral that is not an interim order. - **bar_date** (claims bar date set): an order or notice sets the general deadline for creditors to file proofs of claim; a deadline only for governmental units does not count. - **plan** (plan filed): a Chapter 11 plan is filed (a combined plan and disclosure statement or a Subchapter V plan counts). - **ds_approval** (disclosure statement approved): an order approves the disclosure statement, including conditional approval for solicitation. - **ballot** (ballots certified): the ballot tabulation, voting report or certification of votes on the plan is filed. - **confirmation_hearing_set** (confirmation hearing set): an order, notice or docket text sets the hearing on confirmation of the plan. - **consummation** (plan effective): a notice reports the plan's effective date or substantial consummation. - **final_decree** (final decree): a final decree closes the case, or the clerk closes a case that was not dismissed or converted. ## 6. Questions | id | type | answer | window | |---|---|---|---| | `path_h90` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2022-08-30, 2022-11-28) | | `path_h180` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2022-08-30, 2023-02-26) | | `path_h365` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2022-08-30, 2023-08-30) | | `reach_meeting_341_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches '§341 meeting held' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2022-11-28) | | `reach_meeting_341_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches '§341 meeting held' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-02-26) | | `reach_meeting_341_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches '§341 meeting held' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-08-30) | | `reach_committee_order_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'creditors' committee appointed' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2022-11-28) | | `reach_committee_order_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'creditors' committee appointed' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-02-26) | | `reach_committee_order_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'creditors' committee appointed' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-08-30) | | `reach_cash_collateral_final_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final cash collateral order' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2022-11-28) | | `reach_cash_collateral_final_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final cash collateral order' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-02-26) | | `reach_cash_collateral_final_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final cash collateral order' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-08-30) | | `reach_bar_date_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'claims bar date set' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2022-11-28) | | `reach_bar_date_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'claims bar date set' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-02-26) | | `reach_bar_date_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'claims bar date set' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-08-30) | | `reach_plan_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan filed' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2022-11-28) | | `reach_plan_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan filed' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-02-26) | | `reach_plan_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan filed' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-08-30) | | `reach_ds_approval_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2022-11-28) | | `reach_ds_approval_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-02-26) | | `reach_ds_approval_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-08-30) | | `reach_ballot_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2022-11-28) | | `reach_ballot_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-02-26) | | `reach_ballot_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-08-30) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2022-11-28) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-02-26) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-08-30) | | `reach_consummation_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2022-11-28) | | `reach_consummation_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-02-26) | | `reach_consummation_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-08-30) | | `reach_final_decree_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2022-11-28) | | `reach_final_decree_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-02-26) | | `reach_final_decree_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2022-08-30, 2023-08-30) | ## 7. Decision A claim on the estate trades at 10¢. Its recovery depends on the path at `path_h365`: confirmed 30¢, converted 2¢, dismissed 10¢, pending 15¢. Answer `bid` if your expected recovery exceeds the price, otherwise `pass`. ## 8. Output Write exactly this JSON shape to `/logs/artifacts/forecast.json` (create the directory if needed): ```json { "item_id": "t5a6484e78ec1", "forecasts": { "path_h90": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h180": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h365": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "reach_meeting_341_h90": 0.2, "reach_meeting_341_h180": 0.2, "reach_meeting_341_h365": 0.2, "reach_committee_order_h90": 0.2, "reach_committee_order_h180": 0.2, "reach_committee_order_h365": 0.2, "reach_cash_collateral_final_h90": 0.2, "reach_cash_collateral_final_h180": 0.2, "reach_cash_collateral_final_h365": 0.2, "reach_bar_date_h90": 0.2, "reach_bar_date_h180": 0.2, "reach_bar_date_h365": 0.2, "reach_plan_h90": 0.2, "reach_plan_h180": 0.2, "reach_plan_h365": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h90": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h180": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h365": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h90": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h180": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h365": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h90": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h180": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h365": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h90": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h180": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h365": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h90": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h180": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h365": 0.2 }, "decision": { "action": "pass" }, "rationale": "Short reasoning grounded in the visible docket.", "citations": [ { "entry": "1", "quote": "verbatim text" } ] } ``` Every question id must appear. Path answers need all four classes; binary answers are one number in [0, 1]. [The run’s budget is not published.] ## 9. Citations [The settings of this rule are not published.] ## 10. Scoring [The settings of this rule are not published.]