# Chapter 11 milestone forecast ## 1. Role and task You are a restructuring analyst. Using only the docket as it stood before the decision date, give calibrated probabilities for the case milestones below, take a trading decision, and cite the docket entries that support your view. ## 2. Case - court: D. Delaware - court_id: deb - docket_number: [not published] - debtor_name: Peer Street, Inc. - petition_date: 2023-06-26 - decision_date: 2024-02-01 - case_age_days: 220 - subchapter_v: False - small_business: False - prepack: False - liabilities_bucket: mid All evidence is frozen strictly before the decision date 2024-02-01. The decision date is the day after this process stage was first visible on the docket: plan filed (2024-01-31). Process stages visible before the decision date (first entry of each, from the docket rules; read the entries themselves): - 2023-06-26: Voluntary petition - 2023-06-26: Motion to use cash collateral (entry #12) - 2023-06-26: List of creditors (entry #13) - 2023-06-26: Filing fee (entry #1) - 2023-06-26: Motion to assume or reject (entry #14) - 2023-06-27: Motion to sell assets (entry #18) - 2023-06-28: Cash collateral hearing and order (entry #41) - 2023-06-28: Order approving employment (entry #35) - 2023-07-05: Deadline to object to discharge (entry #55) - 2023-07-07: Application to employ professionals (entry #60) - 2023-07-14: Committee formation by the U.S. Trustee (entry #84) - 2023-07-14: Committee appointed (entry #84) - 2023-07-17: Contract or lease assumed or rejected (entry #93) - 2023-08-02: §341 meeting of creditors (entry #171) - 2023-08-07: Motion to change committee members (entry #187) - 2023-08-24: Interim fee applications (entry #287) - 2023-08-31: Motion for relief from stay (entry #316) - 2023-09-05: Schedule of executory contracts and leases (entry #333) - 2023-09-05: Schedules of liabilities (entry #333) - 2023-09-05: Statement of financial affairs and schedules (entry #333) - 2023-09-07: Committee organizes and retains professionals (entry #376) - 2023-09-22: Lease assumption deadline (extension) (entry #431) - 2023-10-09: Monthly operating reports (entry #475) - 2023-11-29: Order on fee application (entry #648) - 2024-01-16: Claims bar date set (entry #764) - 2024-01-31: Disclosure statement filed (entry #814) - 2024-01-31: Plan filed (entry #814) ## 3. Evidence Use only `/app/evidence`; the container has no network. ## 4. The `docket` tool - `docket info`: case header and evidence summary - `docket ls [--from N] [--to N] [--limit 200]`: one line per entry (`#ref date text…`) - `docket search PATTERN [--regex] [--limit 50]`: case-insensitive search - `docket open REF...`: full sanitized text of entries ## 5. Outcome definitions An event's date is the date it was entered on the docket. Windows run [decision date, decision date + horizon). - **confirmed**: an order confirming a Chapter 11 plan. - **converted**: an order converting the case to Chapter 7. - **dismissed**: an order dismissing the case, including structured dismissal. - **pending**: none of the above in the window. The first of confirmed, converted or dismissed decides the path. - **ds_approval** (disclosure statement approved): an order approves the disclosure statement, including conditional approval for solicitation. - **ballot** (ballots certified): the ballot tabulation, voting report or certification of votes on the plan is filed. - **confirmation_hearing_set** (confirmation hearing set): an order, notice or docket text sets the hearing on confirmation of the plan. - **consummation** (plan effective): a notice reports the plan's effective date or substantial consummation. - **final_decree** (final decree): a final decree closes the case, or the clerk closes a case that was not dismissed or converted. Scheduled events: each `sched_*` question asks what happens to the FIRST date set for an event already scheduled on the docket, read from the docket entries after it up to the event date plus the grace period (the window's end). The first outcome entry decides; a later entry setting a new date counts as continued / adjourned. - **no_objection** (objection deadline): no objection, opposition or response is filed as its own docket entry by the deadline (plus the grace period); a reservation of rights that does not also object is not one, nor is a response that appears only inside another filing. - **objections_live** (objection deadline): objections are filed and at least one is still live at the hearing. - **objections_resolved** (objection deadline): objections are filed, but each is withdrawn or settled before the hearing. - **case_ended** (disclosure statement hearing): the case is converted or dismissed first (for a motion to convert or dismiss, that order is `granted`). - **continued** (disclosure statement hearing): the hearing is continued, adjourned or rescheduled before a ruling (a later date set for the same subject counts, unless a ruling is recorded the same day, such as an interim or agreed order that sets a later hearing for the rest; the ruling then decides). - **denied** (disclosure statement hearing): denied (also when the court grants another motion heard with it and denies all other relief). - **granted** (disclosure statement hearing): the motion is granted or the plan / disclosure statement approved (an interim order counts; conditional approval counts): the case advances to the next stage. An agreed or consent order is withdrawn_or_agreed, even when it grants the motion. - **granted_as_modified** (disclosure statement hearing): granted in part, or as modified (a plan confirmed as modified; relief granted in a more limited form than the motion asked for counts). - **withdrawn_or_agreed** (disclosure statement hearing): the motion or plan is withdrawn, or a stipulation, agreed or consent order settles it (also an agreed order that grants the motion). - **advanced** (hearing on a motion): the step happens: the motion granted (also in part or by agreement), the claim objection sustained. - **case_ended** (hearing on a motion): the case is converted or dismissed first. - **delayed** (hearing on a motion): the hearing is continued or rescheduled before a ruling. - **not_advanced** (hearing on a motion): the motion denied or withdrawn, the claim objection overruled. ## 6. Questions | id | type | answer | window | |---|---|---|---| | `path_h90` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-02-01, 2024-05-01) | | `path_h180` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-02-01, 2024-07-30) | | `path_h365` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-02-01, 2025-01-31) | | `reach_ds_approval_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2024-02-01, 2024-05-01) | | `reach_ds_approval_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2024-02-01, 2024-07-30) | | `reach_ds_approval_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2024-02-01, 2025-01-31) | | `reach_ballot_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2024-02-01, 2024-05-01) | | `reach_ballot_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2024-02-01, 2024-07-30) | | `reach_ballot_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2024-02-01, 2025-01-31) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2024-02-01, 2024-05-01) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2024-02-01, 2024-07-30) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2024-02-01, 2025-01-31) | | `reach_consummation_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2024-02-01, 2024-05-01) | | `reach_consummation_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2024-02-01, 2024-07-30) | | `reach_consummation_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2024-02-01, 2025-01-31) | | `reach_final_decree_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2024-02-01, 2024-05-01) | | `reach_final_decree_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2024-02-01, 2024-07-30) | | `reach_final_decree_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2024-02-01, 2025-01-31) | | `sched_objection_deadline_settlement_9019_1` | path | probabilities for no_objection, objections_resolved, objections_live (sum to 1): the outcome of the objection deadline (motion to approve a settlement (Rule 9019)) first set for 2024-02-14 by entry #809 on entry #809 | [2024-02-01, 2024-02-22) | | `sched_ds_hearing_1` | path | probabilities for granted, granted_as_modified, denied, continued, withdrawn_or_agreed, case_ended (sum to 1): the outcome of the disclosure statement hearing first set for 2024-02-21 02:00 pm by entry #815 | [2024-02-01, 2024-03-23) | | `sched_motion_hearing_settlement_9019_1` | path | probabilities for advanced, delayed, not_advanced, case_ended (sum to 1): the outcome of the hearing on a motion (motion to approve a settlement (Rule 9019)) first set for 2024-02-21 02:00 pm by entry #809 on entry #809 | [2024-02-01, 2024-03-23) | ## 7. Decision A claim on the estate trades at 20¢. Its recovery depends on the path at `path_h365`: confirmed 30¢, converted 2¢, dismissed 10¢, pending 15¢. Answer `bid` if your expected recovery exceeds the price, otherwise `pass`. ## 8. Output Write exactly this JSON shape to `/logs/artifacts/forecast.json` (create the directory if needed): ```json { "item_id": "t80a81a36f8b7", "forecasts": { "path_h90": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h180": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h365": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "reach_ds_approval_h90": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h180": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h365": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h90": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h180": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h365": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h90": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h180": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h365": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h90": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h180": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h365": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h90": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h180": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h365": 0.2, "sched_objection_deadline_settlement_9019_1": { "no_objection": 0.3333, "objections_resolved": 0.3333, "objections_live": 0.3333 }, "sched_ds_hearing_1": { "granted": 0.1667, "granted_as_modified": 0.1667, "denied": 0.1667, "continued": 0.1667, "withdrawn_or_agreed": 0.1667, "case_ended": 0.1667 }, "sched_motion_hearing_settlement_9019_1": { "advanced": 0.25, "delayed": 0.25, "not_advanced": 0.25, "case_ended": 0.25 } }, "decision": { "action": "pass" }, "rationale": "Short reasoning grounded in the visible docket.", "citations": [ { "entry": "1", "quote": "verbatim text" } ] } ``` Every question id must appear. Path answers need every class listed for the question (all four for `path_h*`); binary answers are one number in [0, 1]. [The run’s budget is not published.] ## 9. Citations [The settings of this rule are not published.] ## 10. Scoring [The settings of this rule are not published.]