# Chapter 11 milestone forecast ## 1. Role and task You are a restructuring analyst. Using only the docket as it stood before the decision date, give calibrated probabilities for the case milestones below, take a trading decision, and cite the docket entries that support your view. ## 2. Case - court: E.D. Kentucky - court_id: kyeb - docket_number: [not published] - debtor_name: Coal Network, LLC - petition_date: 2022-08-17 - decision_date: 2023-01-07 - case_age_days: 143 - subchapter_v: True - small_business: False - prepack: False - liabilities_bucket: small All evidence is frozen strictly before the decision date 2023-01-07. The decision date is the day after this process stage was first visible on the docket: ballots certified (2023-01-06). Process stages visible before the decision date (first entry of each, from the docket rules; read the entries themselves): - 2022-08-17: Voluntary petition - 2022-08-17: List of creditors (entry #3) - 2022-08-17: Filing fee (entry #1) - 2022-08-18: Claims bar date set (entry #25) - 2022-08-18: Order on fee application (entry #10) - 2022-08-22: Deadline to object to discharge (entry #58) - 2022-08-23: Motion to use cash collateral (entry #73) - 2022-08-24: Application to employ professionals (entry #83) - 2022-08-25: Cash collateral hearing and order (entry #100) - 2022-08-30: Schedules of liabilities (entry #118) - 2022-08-30: Statement of financial affairs and schedules (entry #117) - 2022-08-31: Schedule of executory contracts and leases (entry #128) - 2022-09-13: Order approving employment (entry #138) - 2022-09-21: Monthly operating reports (entry #147) - 2022-09-22: §341 meeting of creditors (entry #150) - 2022-10-03: Periodic administrative or status report (entry #182) - 2022-10-26: Proofs of claim (entry #u210171551) - 2022-11-15: Plan filed (entry #211) - 2022-11-16: Confirmation hearing (entry #213) - 2022-11-21: Interim fee applications (entry #215) - 2022-12-29: Motion to sell assets (entry #253) - 2023-01-04: Objections to confirmation (entry #256) - 2023-01-06: Ballots certified (entry #258) ## 3. Evidence Use only `/app/evidence`; the container has no network. ## 4. The `docket` tool - `docket info`: case header and evidence summary - `docket ls [--from N] [--to N] [--limit 200]`: one line per entry (`#ref date text…`) - `docket search PATTERN [--regex] [--limit 50]`: case-insensitive search - `docket open REF...`: full sanitized text of entries ## 5. Outcome definitions An event's date is the date it was entered on the docket. Windows run [decision date, decision date + horizon). - **confirmed**: an order confirming a Chapter 11 plan. - **converted**: an order converting the case to Chapter 7. - **dismissed**: an order dismissing the case, including structured dismissal. - **pending**: none of the above in the window. The first of confirmed, converted or dismissed decides the path. - **consummation** (plan effective): a notice reports the plan's effective date or substantial consummation. - **final_decree** (final decree): a final decree closes the case, or the clerk closes a case that was not dismissed or converted. Scheduled events: each `sched_*` question asks what happens to the FIRST date set for an event already scheduled on the docket, read from the docket entries after it up to the event date plus the grace period (the window's end). The first outcome entry decides; a later entry setting a new date counts as continued / adjourned. - **case_ended** (hearing on a motion): the case is converted or dismissed first (for a motion to convert or dismiss, that order is `granted`). - **continued** (hearing on a motion): the hearing is continued, adjourned or rescheduled before a ruling (a later date set for the same subject counts, unless a ruling is recorded the same day, such as an interim or agreed order that sets a later hearing for the rest; the ruling then decides). - **denied** (hearing on a motion): denied (also when the court grants another motion heard with it and denies all other relief). - **granted** (hearing on a motion): the motion is granted or the plan / disclosure statement approved (an interim order counts; conditional approval counts): the case advances to the next stage. An agreed or consent order is withdrawn_or_agreed, even when it grants the motion. - **granted_as_modified** (hearing on a motion): granted in part, or as modified (a plan confirmed as modified; relief granted in a more limited form than the motion asked for counts). - **withdrawn_or_agreed** (hearing on a motion): the motion or plan is withdrawn, or a stipulation, agreed or consent order settles it (also an agreed order that grants the motion). - **case_ended** (confirmation hearing): the case is converted or dismissed first (for a motion to convert or dismiss, that order is `granted`). - **continued** (confirmation hearing): the hearing is continued, adjourned or rescheduled before a ruling (a later date set for the same subject counts, unless a ruling is recorded the same day, such as an interim or agreed order that sets a later hearing for the rest; the ruling then decides). - **denied** (confirmation hearing): denied (also when the court grants another motion heard with it and denies all other relief). - **granted** (confirmation hearing): the motion is granted or the plan / disclosure statement approved (an interim order counts; conditional approval counts): the case advances to the next stage. An agreed or consent order is withdrawn_or_agreed, even when it grants the motion. - **granted_as_modified** (confirmation hearing): the plan is confirmed as modified: the confirmation order says so, or a notice or motion that changes the plan is filed after the hearing is set and before the order. An amended plan filed before the hearing and confirmed as filed counts as granted. - **withdrawn_or_agreed** (confirmation hearing): the motion or plan is withdrawn, or a stipulation, agreed or consent order settles it (also an agreed order that grants the motion). ## 6. Questions | id | type | answer | window | |---|---|---|---| | `path_h90` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2023-01-07, 2023-04-07) | | `path_h180` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2023-01-07, 2023-07-06) | | `path_h365` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2023-01-07, 2024-01-07) | | `reach_consummation_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2023-01-07, 2023-04-07) | | `reach_consummation_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2023-01-07, 2023-07-06) | | `reach_consummation_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2023-01-07, 2024-01-07) | | `reach_final_decree_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2023-01-07, 2023-04-07) | | `reach_final_decree_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2023-01-07, 2023-07-06) | | `reach_final_decree_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2023-01-07, 2024-01-07) | | `sched_motion_hearing_sale_1` | path | probabilities for granted, granted_as_modified, denied, continued, withdrawn_or_agreed, case_ended (sum to 1): the outcome of the hearing on a motion (§363 sale motion) first set for 2023-01-11 10:30 am by entry #253 on entry #253 | [2023-01-07, 2023-02-11) | | `sched_confirmation_hearing_1` | path | probabilities for granted, granted_as_modified, denied, continued, withdrawn_or_agreed, case_ended (sum to 1): the outcome of the confirmation hearing first set for 2023-01-11 10:30 am by entry #213 | [2023-01-07, 2023-02-11) | ## 7. Decision A claim on the estate trades at 20¢. Its recovery depends on the path at `path_h365`: confirmed 30¢, converted 2¢, dismissed 10¢, pending 15¢. Answer `bid` if your expected recovery exceeds the price, otherwise `pass`. ## 8. Output Write exactly this JSON shape to `/logs/artifacts/forecast.json` (create the directory if needed): ```json { "item_id": "tad450e190a42", "forecasts": { "path_h90": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h180": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h365": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "reach_consummation_h90": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h180": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h365": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h90": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h180": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h365": 0.2, "sched_motion_hearing_sale_1": { "granted": 0.1667, "granted_as_modified": 0.1667, "denied": 0.1667, "continued": 0.1667, "withdrawn_or_agreed": 0.1667, "case_ended": 0.1667 }, "sched_confirmation_hearing_1": { "granted": 0.1667, "granted_as_modified": 0.1667, "denied": 0.1667, "continued": 0.1667, "withdrawn_or_agreed": 0.1667, "case_ended": 0.1667 } }, "decision": { "action": "pass" }, "rationale": "Short reasoning grounded in the visible docket.", "citations": [ { "entry": "1", "quote": "verbatim text" } ] } ``` Every question id must appear. Path answers need every class listed for the question (all four for `path_h*`); binary answers are one number in [0, 1]. [The run’s budget is not published.] ## 9. Citations [The settings of this rule are not published.] ## 10. Scoring [The settings of this rule are not published.]