# Chapter 11 milestone forecast ## 1. Role and task You are a restructuring analyst. Using only the docket as it stood before the decision date, give calibrated probabilities for the case milestones below, take a trading decision, and cite the docket entries that support your view. ## 2. Case - court: D. Delaware - court_id: deb - docket_number: [not published] - debtor_name: Nuvo Group USA, Inc. - petition_date: 2024-08-22 - decision_date: 2024-09-28 - case_age_days: 37 - subchapter_v: False - small_business: False - prepack: False - liabilities_bucket: mid All evidence is frozen strictly before the decision date 2024-09-28. The decision date is the day after this process stage was first visible on the docket: §341 meeting held (2024-09-27). Process stages visible before the decision date (first entry of each, from the docket rules; read the entries themselves): - 2024-08-22: Voluntary petition - 2024-08-22: Filing fee (entry #1) - 2024-09-06: Deadline to object to discharge (entry #53) - 2024-09-10: Application to employ professionals (entry #55) - 2024-09-13: Committee formation by the U.S. Trustee (entry #63) - 2024-09-26: List of creditors (entry #107) - 2024-09-26: Order approving employment (entry #102) - 2024-09-27: §341 meeting of creditors (entry #108) ## 3. Evidence Use only `/app/evidence`; the container has no network. ## 4. The `docket` tool - `docket info`: case header and evidence summary - `docket ls [--from N] [--to N] [--limit 200]`: one line per entry (`#ref date text…`) - `docket search PATTERN [--regex] [--limit 50]`: case-insensitive search - `docket open REF...`: full sanitized text of entries ## 5. Outcome definitions An event's date is the date it was entered on the docket. Windows run [decision date, decision date + horizon). - **confirmed**: an order confirming a Chapter 11 plan. - **converted**: an order converting the case to Chapter 7. - **dismissed**: an order dismissing the case, including structured dismissal. - **pending**: none of the above in the window. The first of confirmed, converted or dismissed decides the path. - **committee_order** (creditors' committee appointed): the U.S. Trustee's notice of appointment of an official committee of unsecured creditors, or an order appointing one. - **cash_collateral_final** (final cash collateral order): an order authorizing the use of cash collateral that is not an interim order. - **bar_date** (claims bar date set): an order or notice sets the general deadline for creditors to file proofs of claim; a deadline only for governmental units does not count. - **plan** (plan filed): a Chapter 11 plan is filed (a combined plan and disclosure statement or a Subchapter V plan counts). - **ds_approval** (disclosure statement approved): an order approves the disclosure statement, including conditional approval for solicitation. - **ballot** (ballots certified): the ballot tabulation, voting report or certification of votes on the plan is filed. - **confirmation_hearing_set** (confirmation hearing set): an order, notice or docket text sets the hearing on confirmation of the plan. - **consummation** (plan effective): a notice reports the plan's effective date or substantial consummation. - **final_decree** (final decree): a final decree closes the case, or the clerk closes a case that was not dismissed or converted. Scheduled events: each `sched_*` question asks what happens to the FIRST date set for an event already scheduled on the docket, read from the docket entries after it up to the event date plus the grace period (the window's end). The first outcome entry decides; a later entry setting a new date counts as continued / adjourned. - **case_ended** (statutory plan deadline): the case is converted or dismissed first. - **continued** (statutory plan deadline): an order extends the deadline (exclusivity extended, including a bridge order). - **denied** (statutory plan deadline): the deadline passes without a plan or an extension, or the extension is denied. - **granted** (statutory plan deadline): a plan is filed by the deadline: the case advances to the plan stage. - **granted_as_modified** (statutory plan deadline): not used for the plan deadline. - **withdrawn_or_agreed** (statutory plan deadline): not used for the plan deadline (an agreed extension counts as continued). ## 6. Questions | id | type | answer | window | |---|---|---|---| | `path_h90` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-09-28, 2024-12-27) | | `path_h180` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-09-28, 2025-03-27) | | `path_h365` | path | probabilities for confirmed, converted, dismissed, pending (sum to 1) | [2024-09-28, 2025-09-28) | | `reach_committee_order_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'creditors' committee appointed' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2024-12-27) | | `reach_committee_order_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'creditors' committee appointed' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-03-27) | | `reach_committee_order_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'creditors' committee appointed' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-09-28) | | `reach_cash_collateral_final_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final cash collateral order' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2024-12-27) | | `reach_cash_collateral_final_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final cash collateral order' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-03-27) | | `reach_cash_collateral_final_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final cash collateral order' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-09-28) | | `reach_bar_date_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'claims bar date set' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2024-12-27) | | `reach_bar_date_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'claims bar date set' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-03-27) | | `reach_bar_date_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'claims bar date set' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-09-28) | | `reach_plan_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan filed' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2024-12-27) | | `reach_plan_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan filed' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-03-27) | | `reach_plan_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan filed' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-09-28) | | `reach_ds_approval_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2024-12-27) | | `reach_ds_approval_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-03-27) | | `reach_ds_approval_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'disclosure statement approved' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-09-28) | | `reach_ballot_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2024-12-27) | | `reach_ballot_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-03-27) | | `reach_ballot_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'ballots certified' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-09-28) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2024-12-27) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-03-27) | | `reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'confirmation hearing set' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-09-28) | | `reach_consummation_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2024-12-27) | | `reach_consummation_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-03-27) | | `reach_consummation_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'plan effective' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-09-28) | | `reach_final_decree_h90` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2024-12-27) | | `reach_final_decree_h180` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-03-27) | | `reach_final_decree_h365` | event | probability that the case reaches 'final decree' first in the window | [2024-09-28, 2025-09-28) | | `sched_exclusivity_expiry_1` | path | probabilities for granted, granted_as_modified, denied, continued, withdrawn_or_agreed, case_ended (sum to 1): the outcome of the statutory plan deadline first set for 2024-12-20 | [2024-09-28, 2025-01-20) | ## 7. Decision A claim on the estate trades at 20¢. Its recovery depends on the path at `path_h365`: confirmed 30¢, converted 2¢, dismissed 10¢, pending 15¢. Answer `bid` if your expected recovery exceeds the price, otherwise `pass`. ## 8. Output Write exactly this JSON shape to `/logs/artifacts/forecast.json` (create the directory if needed): ```json { "item_id": "te8c458b9cd48", "forecasts": { "path_h90": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h180": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "path_h365": { "confirmed": 0.1, "converted": 0.1, "dismissed": 0.1, "pending": 0.7 }, "reach_committee_order_h90": 0.2, "reach_committee_order_h180": 0.2, "reach_committee_order_h365": 0.2, "reach_cash_collateral_final_h90": 0.2, "reach_cash_collateral_final_h180": 0.2, "reach_cash_collateral_final_h365": 0.2, "reach_bar_date_h90": 0.2, "reach_bar_date_h180": 0.2, "reach_bar_date_h365": 0.2, "reach_plan_h90": 0.2, "reach_plan_h180": 0.2, "reach_plan_h365": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h90": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h180": 0.2, "reach_ds_approval_h365": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h90": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h180": 0.2, "reach_ballot_h365": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h90": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h180": 0.2, "reach_confirmation_hearing_set_h365": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h90": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h180": 0.2, "reach_consummation_h365": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h90": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h180": 0.2, "reach_final_decree_h365": 0.2, "sched_exclusivity_expiry_1": { "granted": 0.1667, "granted_as_modified": 0.1667, "denied": 0.1667, "continued": 0.1667, "withdrawn_or_agreed": 0.1667, "case_ended": 0.1667 } }, "decision": { "action": "pass" }, "rationale": "Short reasoning grounded in the visible docket.", "citations": [ { "entry": "1", "quote": "verbatim text" } ] } ``` Every question id must appear. Path answers need every class listed for the question (all four for `path_h*`); binary answers are one number in [0, 1]. [The run’s budget is not published.] ## 9. Citations [The settings of this rule are not published.] ## 10. Scoring [The settings of this rule are not published.]